Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Sunrun?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Sunrun (RUN Quick QuoteRUN - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.58 a share, just eight days from its upcoming earnings release on November 4, 2026.

RUN has an Earnings ESP figure of +124.73%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.58 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.26. Sunrun is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

RUN is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is EOG Resources (EOG Quick QuoteEOG - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on November 5, 2026, EOG Resources holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $4.48 a share nine days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG Resources is $4.45, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.79%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, RUN and EOG could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>